- Why is an NFL ("expert") writer producing uneducated, ridiculous drivel like this about college basketball? All I can say is suck it, Clark Judge. Suck it hard.
- Oh, and if the original article wasn't bad enough, then Mr. Judge puts out this wonderfully written piece. So, let me get this straight, Purdue won because of two plays. Otherwise, Washington was dominant? Huh, seems like it would be pretty hard to be dominant when you're behind every second of the game. That sound you hear is Clark Judge climbing even higher on my shit list.
- Last offseason it was the Brett Favre drama-fest. This offseason, its Jay Cutler's drama in Denver. What's the common thread? The idiot on the left. That's Bus Cook, the agent for both of the aforementioned QBs. I think someone likes attention.
- Am I the only one who's job is a clinical study in the 80/20 rule? Although I would slightly reword the rule to be "20% of the people do 80% of the work".
- At my job, knowing what we're doing isn't a prerequisite to doing it. I've worked hard to change that for almost 4 years. I think its getting worse.
- I can't wait for baseball season to start. The World Baseball Classic doesn't count.
- Tomorrow, I'm going to be 27 years old. How's that different from being 26?
- I'm at the point where birthdays are just another day. I still have to go to work, be a dad, etc. Its always nice to have people get you nice stuff though.
- What is it that drives some people to need to always get people "unique" or "special" gifts, instead of something that the person actually wants (and I'm talking about people other than your mom and spouse)? In some ways it seems like a selfish trait. I don't know though.
- I highly recommend this book. Its an exploration of the doctor/patient relationship and how we can help them diagnose us and avoid errors when doing so. However, a word of warning. While the book makes you think about what you can do to work together with your doctor to diagnose illnesses, it also makes you think about all the illnesses you could be diagnosed with.
- My first post on this blog was, at least partially, about constantly fighting with Adam. Once again, after a stretch with very limited issues, we've gone back to a constant battle the last few days. Its incredibly draining.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Mooshka's Musings 3/23/2009
This is the inaugural edition of "Mooshka's Musings". These entries will contain little musings and random thoughts. Let me know what you think.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
The Twins' New Guys, Part 5: Delmon Young
Delmon Young
Delmon Young was acquired by the Twins on November 28, 2007, as the centerpiece of the deal with Tampa Bay that sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays. Delmon was drafted by Tampa Bay with the #1 overall pick in 2003. He was considered a top prospect at the time, even drawing comparisons to Frank Robinson. Scouts were extremely impressed by Delmon's canon arm and power potential at the plate. In his first two years in the Tampa Bay minor league system, Delmon showed the power numbers, hitting 25 HRs at A-ball in his first season, and 26 HRs between AA and AAA the next season. His slash line for the first two minor seasons were a very good .322/.385/.538 and .315/.354/.527, respectively. In 2006, Delmon began the year at the AAA level and eventually was called up to the major league club. However, he hit just 11 HRs in over 450 ABs between the two levels. The drop in power was also accompanied by a decrease in OBP, as he walked just 16 times in over 450 ABs, including just one walk at the major league level. Despite mediocre numbers with the major league club in 2006, Delmon was the starting left fielder for the Rays in 2007. Delmon proceeded to play in all 162 games for the Rays, posting a .288/.316/.408 line, which corresponds to a 91 OPS+. These numbers were good enough to earn Delmon runner-up in the rookie of the year voting (Dustin Pedroia won the award). The Twins traded for Delmon, clearly hoping that he would leave up to his power potential that he showed in his first two years in the minors with Tampa.
Season in Review: In his first year as a Twin, Delmon Young certainly was not the player the Twins were hoping for. He was the epitome of an average player. He was a fixture in left field, playing in 152 of 163 games. While its nice to have a durable player who can play every day, he was not especially impressive defensively. Delmon committed 8 errors in left field and consistently struggled to track down catchable balls. On the plus side, Delmon did display his strong arm, gunning down 11 base-runners and probably preventing others from trying to advance. Offensively, Delmon went through stretches where he showed promise, but overall, his numbers were very similar to last season. He was third on the team with 10 HRs (such a depressing stat for the team) and fourth in RBI with 69. Overall, he posted a line of .290/.336/.405, almost exactly what he posted last season with the Rays. However, there was some improvement this season. Delmon improved his OBP by 20 points over last season, which he did by talking a base on balls 5.7% of the time, compared to just 3.9% last season. He also struck out 18.3% of the time, compared to 19.7% of the time last season. Although Delmon can still be classified as a "free swinger", he had a slightly more discerning eye at the plate as a Twin.
Outlook for Next Season: I think that Twins' fans should be at least a little bit encouraged from what we saw from Delmon Young this season. The fact that he improved his BB% and lowered his K% is a very encouraging thing. We saw this season that when Delmon gets a good pitch to hit, he can hit it hard and a long way. The problem is that he often doesn't wait for his pitch. It would seem that Joe Vavre instilled in Delmon the importance of being patient and waiting for a good pitch to hit. Now, of course, I don't believe that Delmon will ever have the eye of Joe Mauer, but if he can continue his improvement in this regard, I think he will be a decent player. And as I mentioned before, it would seem that you can pretty much pencil Delmon in to play left field in every game, which is positive, despite his average defensive ability. I think that Twins fans will be happy with what they see from Delmon Young next season. I think he'll hit for a bit more power out of the gates and have a solid season.
Synopsis: After a full season of watching Delmon Young, its hard to know what to say. I guess my overall impression of Delmon is that he is an extremely frustrating player to watch. Watching Delmon take poor routes and look generally lost in left field at times was pretty tough to watch. And early in the season, when all he did was hit weak grounders to second, I think most Twins fans were ready to call him a bust. But, he definitely improved, at least in terms of his hitting, as the season progressed. The most frustrating thing for me personally, though, was that every time I thought he was finally improving and gaining a more discerning eye at the plate, he would proceed to have a horrible at-bat, where he would swing and miss at every pitch, no matter where the pitch was located. That has to stop. He needs to learn to be more patient, especially in key spots, with people on base.
Despite my frustrations, I think (as I said in the outlook for next season) that there's hope for the future. I believe that we saw some of his power potential this season. Although he didn't hit many HRs this season, when he did hit one, it went a loooooong way. I mean, he hit some mammoth blasts this season. As I keep saying (and will probably continue to say), if he can just wait for his pitch, the one he can handle and blast, he can hit for a lot more power. But his approach needs to change. The other thing that I believe is really encouraging with Delmon is his ability to hit the ball to the opposite field. He does this really well, almost to a fault. A guy like Carlos Gomez and even Justin Morneau, who get into stretches where they try to pull everything, can get into prolonged slumps and need to correct their approach. Delmon Young is more like Joe Mauer, going the other way all the time and we've seen what Joe has done with that approach. I'm not saying that Delmon Young will ever be as good as Joe Mauer, but there's reason to be encouraged. Overall, I don't believe that Delmon Young is a bust, like some Twins fans do. He had an average year this year, but did show improvement. I look for Delmon to improve even more next year and have a bigger year. And if he doesn't, well, the negativity of Twins fans might just drive him out of town.
Blog revival, what's on deck, etc...
Wow, its been quite a while since my last post. Of course, I have a good excuse (I always do). I got married a month ago. Since returning to work after the honeymoon, things have been kind of crazy, so I haven't had time to write much. I guess I'll actually have to do some writing from home. Weird.
So, as you probably recall, I was in the middle of a series of posts about the Twins newly acquired players. Now the Twins season is over, football season is in full swing, and the hockey and basketball seasons are right around the corner. How did that happen? Baseball season went really quickly this year.
Anyway, thought I'd lay out what's to come. Its more for me than anything else. Helps me remember the things I want to post about and hopefully gives me motivation to do so. So, here's what's to come:
- I do plan to finish the "Twins' New Guys" series, even though the season is over. Not sure if I'll get to the guys called up from the minors (Span, Casilla, etc). Definitely won't do the September call-ups.
- I mentioned in the past that I want to do a post about the state of sports broadcasting, journalism, etc. I was going to use Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven as the center of my comments, but with baseball season nearly over, I'm not sure. I'll probably still do this, there's plenty of great examples of what I'll talk about out there (e.g. Paul McGuire).
- Various football-related posts. Mostly, they will be Vikings-centric. Maybe something about the benching of T-Jax and my thoughts on Brad Childress.
- I hope to have at least one post about the presidential election. It probably won't happen, since I have only a month before its over. Maybe this will be my priority.
- I might (I said I might) something regarding the wedding and honeymoon.
- I have a lot of ideas for posts that relate to Adam. He's getting to be such a big boy and is just so much fun right now. I need to post more about that stuff.
- Something about the last year of Purdue football under Joe Tiller, with a look to the future under the next coach.
- Something about the coming Purdue basketball season. Expectations, etc.
- Probably a work-related post. There haven't been too many Big Tuna incidents lately, but we'll see what happens.
I guess that's enough for now. I couldn't even finish writing 7 posts about Twins players during the 162 game season, so what are the chances I write about much of the list above in the near future. I'm going to try. We'll see how things go.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
There Is a God: Brett Favre "Drama" Finally Ends
After a month of watching the media collectively stroke Brett Favre 24 hours a day, I was just happy to see Favre end up somewhere... anywhere. It has been a month of non-stop Favre coverage on the "World Wide Leader in Favre Coverage" (aka ESPN), including his own ticker category, monopolization of entire episodes of NFL Live and Sportcenter and commentary from people that don't play football, don't know Favre and simply should not be commenting in the first place.
Normally, in the month leading into the NFL regular season opener, I would watch anything and everything football related, like NFL Live, to get ready for the season. Normally, I would read a favorite site of mine every day to read about training camp battles, key injuries, and who got arrested for what. Not this year. Everything has been about Favre and all the "he said, she said" bullshit between him and the Packers. Even if there are other storylines going on in the NFL (which I know there are), you have to filter through all the Favre-related content to find them, because Favre always comes first. Suffice it to say, my excitement for this season has been tempered.
I was especially excited about the Vikings this season, who look like a very good football team, that could make some serious noise this season. Then, we started to hear about all these rumors that Favre wants play for Minnesota and that the Packers are considering trading him to the Vikings. That was just too much to take. If he would have come to Minnesota, I would not have been in any way interested in the Vikings' season. People were talking about the Vikings winning the SuperBowl with Favre at the helm. I would rather go 0-16 without Favre than win the SuperBowl with him. Now, that sounds crazy, right? Because the ultimate goal is to win the SuperBowl. But if the Vikings won the SuperBowl with Favre leading them, it would be tainted. The media (not to mention all Packer fans) would say that Favre won the SuperBowl for the Vikings. He would be credited with the victory. He would be the sole reason the Vikings won the SuperBowl. I couldn't handle that. I wouldn't be worth it.
Finally, we know that Favre will not be wearing a purple jersey this year and I couldn't be happier. After all his crying and bitching and manipulating, trying to get his way, he ended up being traded to a team that he doesn't really want to play for. He's going to play for a team that is a 8-8 team at best, that will probably not make the playoffs. He will be playing for a bad team, which will remind him how good he had it in Green Bay and hopefully it will make him feel like it wasn't worth coming back and that he should have stayed retired. And then, next season, after he voices all of this in the media, he will play his bullshit game again about whether he'll retire or not. And we'll all be right back here, sick of all the coverage that he continues to receive for being a little baby.
I think I speak for a lot of football fans when I say "Brett, just go away". I don't want to see any more of his fake celebrations when he throws a TD, where he pretends to run around like a little kid because he's so excited. What a bunch of crap. Its so fake. I don't want to hear any more Madden orgasms over how much he loves how Favre plays the game, how he plays the right way, how he's the greatest ever. And most of all, I don't want to see or hear or read any more coverage of "Favre considers retirement" and "Favre retires" and "Favre considers return", and "Favre says he's not wanted" and "Favre breaks a nail" and "Favre has a slumber party with John Madden and all of ESPN". Seriously, I'm done. But of course, we're going to have to spend this entire season following his every move with a new team. And I think that I'm going to wear out the mute button on my remote.
Brett, seriously, I hope you tear your ACL. That's the only way we can finally be rid of you forever.
Normally, in the month leading into the NFL regular season opener, I would watch anything and everything football related, like NFL Live, to get ready for the season. Normally, I would read a favorite site of mine every day to read about training camp battles, key injuries, and who got arrested for what. Not this year. Everything has been about Favre and all the "he said, she said" bullshit between him and the Packers. Even if there are other storylines going on in the NFL (which I know there are), you have to filter through all the Favre-related content to find them, because Favre always comes first. Suffice it to say, my excitement for this season has been tempered.
I was especially excited about the Vikings this season, who look like a very good football team, that could make some serious noise this season. Then, we started to hear about all these rumors that Favre wants play for Minnesota and that the Packers are considering trading him to the Vikings. That was just too much to take. If he would have come to Minnesota, I would not have been in any way interested in the Vikings' season. People were talking about the Vikings winning the SuperBowl with Favre at the helm. I would rather go 0-16 without Favre than win the SuperBowl with him. Now, that sounds crazy, right? Because the ultimate goal is to win the SuperBowl. But if the Vikings won the SuperBowl with Favre leading them, it would be tainted. The media (not to mention all Packer fans) would say that Favre won the SuperBowl for the Vikings. He would be credited with the victory. He would be the sole reason the Vikings won the SuperBowl. I couldn't handle that. I wouldn't be worth it.
Finally, we know that Favre will not be wearing a purple jersey this year and I couldn't be happier. After all his crying and bitching and manipulating, trying to get his way, he ended up being traded to a team that he doesn't really want to play for. He's going to play for a team that is a 8-8 team at best, that will probably not make the playoffs. He will be playing for a bad team, which will remind him how good he had it in Green Bay and hopefully it will make him feel like it wasn't worth coming back and that he should have stayed retired. And then, next season, after he voices all of this in the media, he will play his bullshit game again about whether he'll retire or not. And we'll all be right back here, sick of all the coverage that he continues to receive for being a little baby.
I think I speak for a lot of football fans when I say "Brett, just go away". I don't want to see any more of his fake celebrations when he throws a TD, where he pretends to run around like a little kid because he's so excited. What a bunch of crap. Its so fake. I don't want to hear any more Madden orgasms over how much he loves how Favre plays the game, how he plays the right way, how he's the greatest ever. And most of all, I don't want to see or hear or read any more coverage of "Favre considers retirement" and "Favre retires" and "Favre considers return", and "Favre says he's not wanted" and "Favre breaks a nail" and "Favre has a slumber party with John Madden and all of ESPN". Seriously, I'm done. But of course, we're going to have to spend this entire season following his every move with a new team. And I think that I'm going to wear out the mute button on my remote.
Brett, seriously, I hope you tear your ACL. That's the only way we can finally be rid of you forever.
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Twins' New Guys, Part 5: Brendan Harris
The first four parts of "The Twins' New Guys" series focused on the free agents signed by the Twins last off season. Now, I will turn my attention towards the players acquired via trades, who are currently contributing to the major league club. There will be three posts about such players.
Brendan Harris
Brendan Harris was acquired by the Twins on November 28, 2007, in a trade with Tampa Bay. The Twins sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Jason Pridie, and Brendan Harris. Although primarily playing at 3B throughout his minor league career, Harris has spent the majority of his major league time at SS and 2B. After bouncing around in several trades, Harris got his first prolonged chance at the major league level during the 2007 season with Tampa Bay, playing mostly at SS. In 500+ at-bats, he compiled a .286/.343/.434 line, which totals to an OPS+ of 106, making him a slightly above average offensive shortstop. When the Twins agreed to trade Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay, it made sense to replace him with a SS whose overall numbers appear (on the surface) to be very similar to Bartlett's (.265/.339/.361 and an OPS+ of 88 for Bartlett in 2007).
So far this season: Due largely to injuries on the infield (Everett and Punto) and the ineffectiveness of Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris has seen fairly regular playing time. In fact, Harris has the 5th-most at-bats on the team, with 320, which is just 8 fewer than Joe Mauer. Unfortunately, Harris' 320 at-bats have not been as productive as Mauer's. Through 91 games, Harris has splits of .259/.315/.369, giving him an OPS+ of 87 (below average). However, his is in the midst of a pretty good stretch, hitting .313, including 13 extra-base hits (7 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR) since mid-June.
Harris began the year as the Twins' starting second baseman, with Adam Everett playing SS. However, he struggled defensively at 2B, committing 5 errors in 39 games and posting a well below average RFg of 4.03 (league average at 2B is 4.58). Alexi Casilla was called up from AAA to take over at 2B and Brendan Harris was moved to SS, the position where he played the majority of last season. Despite the fact that his defense still isn't stellar, Harris has looked more comfortable at shortstop, posting a well above average RFg of 4.65 (league average is 3.93) and committing just 3 errors in 43 games. Ultimately, defense isn't the strongest part of Harris' game, as he still has pretty hard hands and too often is unable to turn a double-play, even though he has appeared more comfortable at SS.
Outlook for the rest of the season: I think that for the rest of the season, Harris will be in a platoon at SS with Nick Punto, as long as Punto can stay healthy enough to play. Although Adam Everett is due back from the disabled list soon, I don't believe he will be a factor at SS (he is more likely a candidate for release or trade). If Harris can continue to produce the offensive numbers that he has in the last month, it will be difficult for Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup, especially against left-handed pitchers, as the Twins desperately need a right-handed batter to step up against lefties. I believe that Harris can produce somewhere near his career splits of .268/.326/.402, which would be acceptable. Based on his track-record, I don't believe Nick Punto will continue putting up the numbers that he has (in limited playing time) this season, which will make Harris all the more important down the stretch.
Synopsis: In my mind, the Twins could do a lot worse than Brendan Harris as their SS. The Twins are a better team with him on the field than they would have been marching Adam Everett out there every day. That being said, I'm pretty indifferent when it comes to Harris. He is absolutely brutal to watch defensively. I have to cover my eyes every time he is involved in a potential double play. On the other hand, offensively, Harris has shown some positive things. He began the year on fire and is now in the middle of another good stretch. He just needs to learn to be a little bit more patient and selective at the plate, as evidenced by his striking out in 23% of at-bats, while only walking 7% of the time. Unfortunately, as a 28 year old SS, in just his second full year in the majors, Harris has more than likely reached his full potential. Ultimately, I see Harris as a stop-gap shortstop, until the Twins sign a quality player in free agency or have a player from the minor league system take over.
In my post about Adam Everett, I talked about how I felt that trading Bartlett was a mistake. If you look at the trade with Tampa Bay as 3 player-for-player trades (which isn't a great view of the trade, but for comparison purposes here, it works), then Brendan Harris and Jason Bartlett were traded for each other. With that view, I still think that trading Jason Bartlett was a mistake. Despite having more power than Bartlett, Harris strikes out a lot, walks fairly rarely, and is below average defensively. I think that Bartlett's defensive ability, coupled with his superior on-base skills made him the more valuable player. Admittedly, Bartlett is having a pretty poor year in Tampa Bay this year, but that doesn't mean that he would have been as bad if he had remained with the Twins. As I said above, I have no real problem with Harris, but I would still prefer Bartlett at SS.
Brendan Harris
Brendan Harris was acquired by the Twins on November 28, 2007, in a trade with Tampa Bay. The Twins sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Delmon Young, Jason Pridie, and Brendan Harris. Although primarily playing at 3B throughout his minor league career, Harris has spent the majority of his major league time at SS and 2B. After bouncing around in several trades, Harris got his first prolonged chance at the major league level during the 2007 season with Tampa Bay, playing mostly at SS. In 500+ at-bats, he compiled a .286/.343/.434 line, which totals to an OPS+ of 106, making him a slightly above average offensive shortstop. When the Twins agreed to trade Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay, it made sense to replace him with a SS whose overall numbers appear (on the surface) to be very similar to Bartlett's (.265/.339/.361 and an OPS+ of 88 for Bartlett in 2007).So far this season: Due largely to injuries on the infield (Everett and Punto) and the ineffectiveness of Mike Lamb, Brendan Harris has seen fairly regular playing time. In fact, Harris has the 5th-most at-bats on the team, with 320, which is just 8 fewer than Joe Mauer. Unfortunately, Harris' 320 at-bats have not been as productive as Mauer's. Through 91 games, Harris has splits of .259/.315/.369, giving him an OPS+ of 87 (below average). However, his is in the midst of a pretty good stretch, hitting .313, including 13 extra-base hits (7 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR) since mid-June.
Harris began the year as the Twins' starting second baseman, with Adam Everett playing SS. However, he struggled defensively at 2B, committing 5 errors in 39 games and posting a well below average RFg of 4.03 (league average at 2B is 4.58). Alexi Casilla was called up from AAA to take over at 2B and Brendan Harris was moved to SS, the position where he played the majority of last season. Despite the fact that his defense still isn't stellar, Harris has looked more comfortable at shortstop, posting a well above average RFg of 4.65 (league average is 3.93) and committing just 3 errors in 43 games. Ultimately, defense isn't the strongest part of Harris' game, as he still has pretty hard hands and too often is unable to turn a double-play, even though he has appeared more comfortable at SS.
Outlook for the rest of the season: I think that for the rest of the season, Harris will be in a platoon at SS with Nick Punto, as long as Punto can stay healthy enough to play. Although Adam Everett is due back from the disabled list soon, I don't believe he will be a factor at SS (he is more likely a candidate for release or trade). If Harris can continue to produce the offensive numbers that he has in the last month, it will be difficult for Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup, especially against left-handed pitchers, as the Twins desperately need a right-handed batter to step up against lefties. I believe that Harris can produce somewhere near his career splits of .268/.326/.402, which would be acceptable. Based on his track-record, I don't believe Nick Punto will continue putting up the numbers that he has (in limited playing time) this season, which will make Harris all the more important down the stretch.
Synopsis: In my mind, the Twins could do a lot worse than Brendan Harris as their SS. The Twins are a better team with him on the field than they would have been marching Adam Everett out there every day. That being said, I'm pretty indifferent when it comes to Harris. He is absolutely brutal to watch defensively. I have to cover my eyes every time he is involved in a potential double play. On the other hand, offensively, Harris has shown some positive things. He began the year on fire and is now in the middle of another good stretch. He just needs to learn to be a little bit more patient and selective at the plate, as evidenced by his striking out in 23% of at-bats, while only walking 7% of the time. Unfortunately, as a 28 year old SS, in just his second full year in the majors, Harris has more than likely reached his full potential. Ultimately, I see Harris as a stop-gap shortstop, until the Twins sign a quality player in free agency or have a player from the minor league system take over.
In my post about Adam Everett, I talked about how I felt that trading Bartlett was a mistake. If you look at the trade with Tampa Bay as 3 player-for-player trades (which isn't a great view of the trade, but for comparison purposes here, it works), then Brendan Harris and Jason Bartlett were traded for each other. With that view, I still think that trading Jason Bartlett was a mistake. Despite having more power than Bartlett, Harris strikes out a lot, walks fairly rarely, and is below average defensively. I think that Bartlett's defensive ability, coupled with his superior on-base skills made him the more valuable player. Admittedly, Bartlett is having a pretty poor year in Tampa Bay this year, but that doesn't mean that he would have been as bad if he had remained with the Twins. As I said above, I have no real problem with Harris, but I would still prefer Bartlett at SS.
Friday, July 25, 2008
The Twins' New Guys, Part 4: Livan Hernandez
Livan Hernandez
Livan Hernandez broke into the majors in 1996 with the Florida Marlins. In his rookie season (officially speaking, his rookie season was '97, although he made one appearance during the '96 season), Livan was the runner-up National League Rookie of the Year and helped lead the Marlins to their first World Series championship. Since, Livan has established a reputation as a durable "innings eater", pitching 200+ innings in every season since 1997, with the exception of '99 when he pitched "just" 199 innings. Prior to this season, he pitched for 4 other teams (Florida, San Francisco, Montreal/Washington, and Arizona) and was a two-time NL All Star. As Livan has gotten older, he has lost a lot of velocity on his pitches, resulting in declining effectiveness. His ERA and WHIP have increased steadily every year since 2003, while his K/9 has drastically decreased. Essentially, as he's aged, Livan has been missing fewer bats and become very hittable, resulting in him giving up a lot more runs.
With the trades of staff ace Johan Santana and the promising, young Matt Garza, the Twins were looking for pitching to solidify a very young staff. More specifically, the Twins hoped to find a veteran to step in as the new (if only temporary) staff ace. Enter Livan Hernandez, who signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Twins. In addition to Livan's ability to "eat innings", the Twins also loved that he would bring a "veteran presence" to the rotation.
So far this season: Livan has continued his trend of the last few years, by having an ERA and WHIP higher than the previous season, while striking out fewer batters. He has a terrible 5.39 ERA and a 75 ERA+, making him a well below-average pitcher. He has the 7th-lowest WHIP in the majors, giving up 1.5 walks and hits per inning. He has struck out a league-worst 3.31 batters per 9 innings. True to form for Twins pitchers, Livan has walked just 1.69 batters per 9 innings, good enough for 11th-best in the big leagues. However, the fact that he has walked so few batters makes his high WHIP that much more concerning, as it means that he has been giving up a ridiculous number of hits.
If you want to look at the "positive" side, Livan is once again on pace to pitch 200+ innings, thus living up to the "innings eater" tag. Plus his VPIOYPI (Veteran Presence Impact on Young Pitchers Index) is through the roof, at an astounding 8.92. OK, I made that stat up. But the Twins believe that Livan is teaching the young pitchers on the team (Slowey, Perkins, Baker, and Blackburn) how to pitch the right way and is having a very positive influence.
Outlook for the rest of the season: If you were to ask a Magic 8-Ball about the outlook for the rest of Livan Hernandez's season, I'm fairly certain the response would be "Outlook not so good". Livan will continue to "eat innings", just like the Twins want. Ultimately though, I think his overall numbers will remain approximately the same, meaning that he will pitch another 100 way below sub-par innings in the season half of the season. There have been rumblings (mostly just wishful thinking I guess) that Livan could be traded to a contending team who wants his "veteran presence" down the stretch. However, I don't really see that happening. Given what a bad year he has had, I don't really believe there are any teams that would be willing to take on his salary, his bad innings, and given the Twins something in return. Therefore, Livan will remain in the Twins rotation (I also see no chance of him being moved to the bullpen) and the Twins offense will need to continue to score a lot of runs when he starts, in order to win any games when he pitches.
Synopsis: During a recent Twins broadcast, Bert Blyleven said one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard in my life. He and Dick Bremer were discussing Francisco Liriano possibly returning to the rotation and Bert said something to the extent of "there is nobody that deserves to be taken out of the rotation to make room for Liriano". Now, I realize that the local broadcasters see things through rose-colored glasses, but honestly, there isn't anybody who deserves any consideration for being removed from the rotation? Let's just say I disagree. People like to point out that he has 10 wins this season. He's winning games, what more do you want? Well, actually, I would argue that Livan Hernandez isn't winning those games so much as the offense is carrying him on their backs and getting him those wins. Regardless, wins are a meaningless stat for pitchers. Livan, on average, gives up about 5 runs a game and gives up 1.5 hits and walks every inning. Compare that to Liriano's 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season (admittedly that's against minor league talent, but its impressive nonetheless, considering he's coming off of major surgery on his throwing arm). Tell me that Livan doesn't deserve to be removed from the rotation.
The there's the whole topic of "veteran presence". Honestly, I can't say whether or not Livan's presence in the dugout and in the locker room is having a positive influence on the other pitchers. That is an intangible thing that cannot possibly be measured or even proven to be a factor at all. Therefore, due to lack of evidence, I must dismiss this concept as not increasing Livan's value. It sounds nice, but I'm just not buying it.
However, in a surprise twist, I'm going to end on a positive note by arguing that the signing of Livan Hernandez was not the worst signing in Twins history. In fact, despite his horrible performance this year, he has been essentially as good (bad) as Carlos Silva has been this year. Consider the following stats (Hernandez/Silva):
IP: 127.7 / 121.7
ERA: 5.29 / 5.62
ERA+: 75 / 71
WHIP: 1.58 / 1.46
K/9: 3.31 / 3.92
BB/9: 1.69 / 1.48
HR Allowed: 16 / 14
As you can see, Hernandez and Silva have been essentially the same pitcher this year. But here's the big difference and the reason I don't think that Hernandez was a terrible signing: Hernandez was signed by the Twins for 1 year at $5 million, while Carlos Silva was signed by the Mariners as a free agent for 4 years at $12 million per year. That's a $7 million difference for essentially equivalently bad pitching. Plus, the Twins can easily allow Hernandez to leave as a free agent at the end of the season, while the Mariners are stuck with Silva (and the likelihood that they could trade him with his bad performance and such an inflated salary is pretty low). I'm not saying that Livan Hernandez was a great signing, not even close. In fact, the Twins should have just trusted their young pitching talent in the minor league system. However, considering that the Twins had quite a bit of money to spend after Santana left, $5 million for one year of bad pitching isn't the worst move the Twins have ever made. It could have been much worse: they could have resigned Carlos Silva.
Livan Hernandez broke into the majors in 1996 with the Florida Marlins. In his rookie season (officially speaking, his rookie season was '97, although he made one appearance during the '96 season), Livan was the runner-up National League Rookie of the Year and helped lead the Marlins to their first World Series championship. Since, Livan has established a reputation as a durable "innings eater", pitching 200+ innings in every season since 1997, with the exception of '99 when he pitched "just" 199 innings. Prior to this season, he pitched for 4 other teams (Florida, San Francisco, Montreal/Washington, and Arizona) and was a two-time NL All Star. As Livan has gotten older, he has lost a lot of velocity on his pitches, resulting in declining effectiveness. His ERA and WHIP have increased steadily every year since 2003, while his K/9 has drastically decreased. Essentially, as he's aged, Livan has been missing fewer bats and become very hittable, resulting in him giving up a lot more runs.With the trades of staff ace Johan Santana and the promising, young Matt Garza, the Twins were looking for pitching to solidify a very young staff. More specifically, the Twins hoped to find a veteran to step in as the new (if only temporary) staff ace. Enter Livan Hernandez, who signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Twins. In addition to Livan's ability to "eat innings", the Twins also loved that he would bring a "veteran presence" to the rotation.
So far this season: Livan has continued his trend of the last few years, by having an ERA and WHIP higher than the previous season, while striking out fewer batters. He has a terrible 5.39 ERA and a 75 ERA+, making him a well below-average pitcher. He has the 7th-lowest WHIP in the majors, giving up 1.5 walks and hits per inning. He has struck out a league-worst 3.31 batters per 9 innings. True to form for Twins pitchers, Livan has walked just 1.69 batters per 9 innings, good enough for 11th-best in the big leagues. However, the fact that he has walked so few batters makes his high WHIP that much more concerning, as it means that he has been giving up a ridiculous number of hits.
If you want to look at the "positive" side, Livan is once again on pace to pitch 200+ innings, thus living up to the "innings eater" tag. Plus his VPIOYPI (Veteran Presence Impact on Young Pitchers Index) is through the roof, at an astounding 8.92. OK, I made that stat up. But the Twins believe that Livan is teaching the young pitchers on the team (Slowey, Perkins, Baker, and Blackburn) how to pitch the right way and is having a very positive influence.
Outlook for the rest of the season: If you were to ask a Magic 8-Ball about the outlook for the rest of Livan Hernandez's season, I'm fairly certain the response would be "Outlook not so good". Livan will continue to "eat innings", just like the Twins want. Ultimately though, I think his overall numbers will remain approximately the same, meaning that he will pitch another 100 way below sub-par innings in the season half of the season. There have been rumblings (mostly just wishful thinking I guess) that Livan could be traded to a contending team who wants his "veteran presence" down the stretch. However, I don't really see that happening. Given what a bad year he has had, I don't really believe there are any teams that would be willing to take on his salary, his bad innings, and given the Twins something in return. Therefore, Livan will remain in the Twins rotation (I also see no chance of him being moved to the bullpen) and the Twins offense will need to continue to score a lot of runs when he starts, in order to win any games when he pitches.
Synopsis: During a recent Twins broadcast, Bert Blyleven said one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard in my life. He and Dick Bremer were discussing Francisco Liriano possibly returning to the rotation and Bert said something to the extent of "there is nobody that deserves to be taken out of the rotation to make room for Liriano". Now, I realize that the local broadcasters see things through rose-colored glasses, but honestly, there isn't anybody who deserves any consideration for being removed from the rotation? Let's just say I disagree. People like to point out that he has 10 wins this season. He's winning games, what more do you want? Well, actually, I would argue that Livan Hernandez isn't winning those games so much as the offense is carrying him on their backs and getting him those wins. Regardless, wins are a meaningless stat for pitchers. Livan, on average, gives up about 5 runs a game and gives up 1.5 hits and walks every inning. Compare that to Liriano's 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season (admittedly that's against minor league talent, but its impressive nonetheless, considering he's coming off of major surgery on his throwing arm). Tell me that Livan doesn't deserve to be removed from the rotation.
The there's the whole topic of "veteran presence". Honestly, I can't say whether or not Livan's presence in the dugout and in the locker room is having a positive influence on the other pitchers. That is an intangible thing that cannot possibly be measured or even proven to be a factor at all. Therefore, due to lack of evidence, I must dismiss this concept as not increasing Livan's value. It sounds nice, but I'm just not buying it.
However, in a surprise twist, I'm going to end on a positive note by arguing that the signing of Livan Hernandez was not the worst signing in Twins history. In fact, despite his horrible performance this year, he has been essentially as good (bad) as Carlos Silva has been this year. Consider the following stats (Hernandez/Silva):
IP: 127.7 / 121.7
ERA: 5.29 / 5.62
ERA+: 75 / 71
WHIP: 1.58 / 1.46
K/9: 3.31 / 3.92
BB/9: 1.69 / 1.48
HR Allowed: 16 / 14
As you can see, Hernandez and Silva have been essentially the same pitcher this year. But here's the big difference and the reason I don't think that Hernandez was a terrible signing: Hernandez was signed by the Twins for 1 year at $5 million, while Carlos Silva was signed by the Mariners as a free agent for 4 years at $12 million per year. That's a $7 million difference for essentially equivalently bad pitching. Plus, the Twins can easily allow Hernandez to leave as a free agent at the end of the season, while the Mariners are stuck with Silva (and the likelihood that they could trade him with his bad performance and such an inflated salary is pretty low). I'm not saying that Livan Hernandez was a great signing, not even close. In fact, the Twins should have just trusted their young pitching talent in the minor league system. However, considering that the Twins had quite a bit of money to spend after Santana left, $5 million for one year of bad pitching isn't the worst move the Twins have ever made. It could have been much worse: they could have resigned Carlos Silva.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Hey, those are my cans
Well, its been over a month since my last post and I've gotten several complaints about that. Sorry about that. Work (where I do most of my writing) hasn't allowed must time for blogging. In any case, I'm going to digress from the Twins postings in order to discuss something that just pisses me off.
There are these two guys that live in one of the buildings in our apartment community and they happen to have a garage right across from ours. Pretty much every day when I come home from work or pretty much anytime I come or go from my garage, at least one of them is out in their garage doing their thing. What is their thing, you ask? You see, their garage is filled with bags of cans, scraps of metal, and old appliances. They are constantly sorting through the cans, organizing the metal scraps and stripping the old appliances of their various metal components. All of the work that these two fine gentlemen do in their garage is so they can sell this metal at the local recycling center.
On the surface, this all sounds legit so far, right? It's certainly their right to make a little money off of recycling their used cans and old appliances. Except, I have a hard time believing that two people could produce hundreds of empty cans each week. I also notice that different appliances appear in their garage each week. I have an even harder time believing that they own all of these appliances and that they just happen to keep breaking all the time such that they can scrap them for parts. So then, where are they getting all of these items which they can sell for money?
Answer: The dumpster/recycling bins
These nice men are dumpster-divers. I have seen them many times (usually early in the morning and after dark) literally climb into the big dumpster outside our apartment building and pick through the garbage looking for anything that would have metal that could be sold. They take entire bags of people's recycling out of the bins and place them in their garage. In short, they steal other people's garbage and sell it for their livelihood.
Now, we've all heard stories of meth-heads stealing copper wire and catalytic converters from people's cars and selling them for meth money, but I don't believe these guys are meth users. I think they're just too lazy to get real jobs. I mean for Christ sake, they could be trash/recycling pickup men, or work at the dump and it would be the same work. I'm guessing it probably doesn't pay as well though.
I probably shouldn't be as upset about this as I am. I mean, I am getting rid of the cans, etc, so why do I care what happens to them once I throw them out? And legally speaking, dumpster-diving is perfectly legal in most places. Essentially, when you put something in the trash, you give up your possession of the item and its free for anyone to claim. But you know what, when I put my garbage and recycling out there, I'm not putting there for someone to make a profit.
I would be even more upset if I were a home-owner. In some cities, home-owners have to pay a company to come collect their garbage and/or recycling. If I were paying for those services and then someone came along and stole my garbage and/or recycling to make money, I would be livid!
I guess one of the reasons that I'm so annoyed by these guys is that I think maybe they get some of their metal from places other than the dumpster and recycling bins at our apartment. They often have pieces of metal pipe that look like fence posts or something similar. So, are they going to construction sites or homes and taking pieces of metal? Not to mention the large number of appliances they have. Are they driving around and taking appliances off of people's curbs? At least once a week, they park their car, which is full of metal scraps, etc in front of their garage and unload it. The fact that they loaded their car up indicates to me that they didn't get most of that stuff near by.
When I was researching the legality of dumpster-diving and stealing of recyclables, I found this story. People are making a business out of stealing recyclables and garbage. Its completely ridiculous.
I'm so sick of lazy people who can't just make a normal living. I'm sick of those who have to prey on others and take advantage of everyone just for their own gain. Maybe what these guys are doing isn't that big of a deal, but it still falls under these types of behavior and I can be upset with them if I want to be.
I guess I'll just have to start taking my metal scraps to the recycling center myself...
There are these two guys that live in one of the buildings in our apartment community and they happen to have a garage right across from ours. Pretty much every day when I come home from work or pretty much anytime I come or go from my garage, at least one of them is out in their garage doing their thing. What is their thing, you ask? You see, their garage is filled with bags of cans, scraps of metal, and old appliances. They are constantly sorting through the cans, organizing the metal scraps and stripping the old appliances of their various metal components. All of the work that these two fine gentlemen do in their garage is so they can sell this metal at the local recycling center.
On the surface, this all sounds legit so far, right? It's certainly their right to make a little money off of recycling their used cans and old appliances. Except, I have a hard time believing that two people could produce hundreds of empty cans each week. I also notice that different appliances appear in their garage each week. I have an even harder time believing that they own all of these appliances and that they just happen to keep breaking all the time such that they can scrap them for parts. So then, where are they getting all of these items which they can sell for money?
Answer: The dumpster/recycling bins
These nice men are dumpster-divers. I have seen them many times (usually early in the morning and after dark) literally climb into the big dumpster outside our apartment building and pick through the garbage looking for anything that would have metal that could be sold. They take entire bags of people's recycling out of the bins and place them in their garage. In short, they steal other people's garbage and sell it for their livelihood.
Now, we've all heard stories of meth-heads stealing copper wire and catalytic converters from people's cars and selling them for meth money, but I don't believe these guys are meth users. I think they're just too lazy to get real jobs. I mean for Christ sake, they could be trash/recycling pickup men, or work at the dump and it would be the same work. I'm guessing it probably doesn't pay as well though.
I probably shouldn't be as upset about this as I am. I mean, I am getting rid of the cans, etc, so why do I care what happens to them once I throw them out? And legally speaking, dumpster-diving is perfectly legal in most places. Essentially, when you put something in the trash, you give up your possession of the item and its free for anyone to claim. But you know what, when I put my garbage and recycling out there, I'm not putting there for someone to make a profit.
I would be even more upset if I were a home-owner. In some cities, home-owners have to pay a company to come collect their garbage and/or recycling. If I were paying for those services and then someone came along and stole my garbage and/or recycling to make money, I would be livid!
I guess one of the reasons that I'm so annoyed by these guys is that I think maybe they get some of their metal from places other than the dumpster and recycling bins at our apartment. They often have pieces of metal pipe that look like fence posts or something similar. So, are they going to construction sites or homes and taking pieces of metal? Not to mention the large number of appliances they have. Are they driving around and taking appliances off of people's curbs? At least once a week, they park their car, which is full of metal scraps, etc in front of their garage and unload it. The fact that they loaded their car up indicates to me that they didn't get most of that stuff near by.
When I was researching the legality of dumpster-diving and stealing of recyclables, I found this story. People are making a business out of stealing recyclables and garbage. Its completely ridiculous.
I'm so sick of lazy people who can't just make a normal living. I'm sick of those who have to prey on others and take advantage of everyone just for their own gain. Maybe what these guys are doing isn't that big of a deal, but it still falls under these types of behavior and I can be upset with them if I want to be.
I guess I'll just have to start taking my metal scraps to the recycling center myself...
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